Trump Is Back! Impact on H-1B, EB-5 Visas, & Green Card Aspirations Decoded
By Surbhi Gloria Singh — New Delhi
9 min read | Last Updated: Nov 06, 2024 | 7:29 PM IST
Donald Trump has done it again, pulling off a historic re-election to the US Presidency against Democratic candidate Kamala Harris.
In his victory speech on November 6 in Florida, Trump said:
“Immigrants are welcome but they have to come in legally.”
But what does Trump’s win mean for Indians, particularly those looking to make their mark in America?
Trump’s Stance on Immigration: A Familiar Yet Evolving Approach
The Republican leader is known to be tough on immigration; much of his campaign centred around curbing illegal migration under the Biden–Harris administration.
His previous term saw several policy changes affecting skilled professionals and students, especially those on H-1B, F-1, and H-4 visas.
Ajay Sharma, founder of Abhinav Immigration Services, believes Trump’s return could actually open new opportunities for legal migrants:
“Trump’s platform focused on deporting illegal migrants, and with an estimated 10 million undocumented people in the US, his actions could open doors for skilled migrants. Indians, who largely use legal routes like the H-1B for work or F-1 for study, may find new opportunities if the administration prioritises skilled migration over family-based immigration.”
Sharma added that Trump had previously hinted at introducing a points-based immigration system similar to those in Canada and Australia.
“If revived, it could pave the way for skilled Indian migrants. Right now, the US system is family-based, which Trump believes contributes less economically compared to skilled migrants,” he said.
However, Sharma cautioned:
“Nothing will happen overnight. The inauguration is in January, and it could take another three to six months before these policies are implemented.”
Impact on Visas and Work Permits: What Lies Ahead?
Indian professionals and students in the US often rely on H-1B, F-1, and H-4 visa categories. Trump’s win could bring both new challenges and opportunities.
Parth Vakil, founding partner of Ek.indUS, noted:
“Restrictive immigration policies could complicate visa statuses for highly skilled Indians, exposing them to an arbitrary lottery system beyond their control. For Indian students, especially in STEM fields, there may be concerns over restrictions on Optional Practical Training (OPT), which allows graduates to work legally for up to a year.”
Vakil added that the EB-5 Immigrant Investor Programme remains a fast, secure alternative:
“Permanent residency is the only way to negate these risks. The EB-5 offers a fast track for those who can make the necessary investment.”
H-1B Visa Changes: Will It Affect Indian Professionals?
Trump’s victory could lead to stricter H-1B regulations, as he has previously pushed to prioritise American workers.
Vakil explained:
“A stricter policy could increase competition, impacting Indian tech professionals who depend on H-1B renewals and applications.”
Sharma agreed, saying Trump’s emphasis on merit-based immigration might benefit highly skilled Indians but warned of potential new restrictions on entry requirements.
Student Visas & Green Card Prospects: Will Pathways Change?
Indian students may face tighter visa controls, especially regarding F-1 student visas and OPT work permits.
During Trump’s previous term, proposals were made to restrict OPT amid rising unemployment — though they were never implemented.
At the same time, Trump’s team had floated Green Card reforms that could make it easier for skilled graduates to gain residency after studies.
Abhijit Zaveri, founder of Career Mosaic, said:
“A relaxed Green Card policy for F-1 students would be beneficial, especially for those in advanced STEM fields. It could make transitioning into the American workforce smoother.”
Broader Implications for Indian Immigrants: What’s at Stake?
For the 5.5 million-strong Indian-American community and those aspiring for the American dream, Trump’s return brings both optimism and caution.
Manoj Dharmani, CEO of DUDigital Global Ltd, remarked:
“For Indian nationals, this could mean continued opportunities in tech and engineering, though with stricter documentation requirements. H-1B wage requirements may rise, and new qualification criteria might emerge.”
Dharmani advised staying updated through official channels:
“Strategic US-India relations could maintain pathways for skilled workers, but diversity visas may move toward merit-based selection.”
Dreamers & DACA: A Lingering Uncertainty
Trump’s hardline stance on undocumented migrants could reignite fears among Dreamers under the Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals (DACA) program.
Dharmani warned:
“Trump’s win might create a less stable outlook for undocumented youth, as he has consistently advocated ending DACA.”
Trump’s 2017 administration sought to terminate the programme, but in 2020 the US Supreme Court ruled that its rescission was unlawful.
In his 2024 campaign, Trump reiterated his intent to end DACA and proposed mass deportations, opposing any pathway to citizenship for undocumented individuals.
Trade Relations & US-India Partnership: A Stronger Bond?
Trump’s personal rapport with Prime Minister Narendra Modi could benefit trade and technology partnerships.
Ramesh Alluri Reddy, CEO of TeamLease Degree Apprenticeship, said:
“Trump’s pro-business stance may strengthen ties in digital and sustainable development sectors. The demand for Indian talent in Global Capability Centres (GCCs) could rise.”
Trade data supports this optimism — US exports to India rose by 84% from 2012 to 2021, while imports from India jumped by 81% in the same period.
Amit Baveja, MD of Burlington English India & Southeast Asia, added:
“The US Mission to India’s plan to add 250,000 visa appointments shows the growing importance of Indian professionals and students in US-India cooperation.”
Aritra Ghosal, founder of OneStep Global, observed that South Asia may emerge as a preferred education hub, given US-China tensions.
Legal Complications: What Concerns Remain?
The Indian-American community has expressed concern over Trump’s perceived support for Project 2025, a conservative policy document proposing mass deportations and denaturalisation.
Russell A. Stamets, partner at Circle of Counsels, warned:
“Indians should fear a Trump presidency on many levels. His mass deportation plan and move to end birthright citizenship pose serious risks for non-white immigrants.”
Earlier, Shashi Tharoor also commented that Trump’s anti-immigration stance could tighten family reunification opportunities for Indian-Americans and their relatives.
EB-5 & Investor Immigration: A Safer Bet?
The EB-5 visa programme, popular among Indian investors, is likely to retain its appeal under Trump’s business-friendly policies.
Piyush Gupta, Vice President of CanAm Enterprises, said:
“The EB-5 programme has consistently provided a stable route for investors seeking US residency. Indian investors can continue to use it to mitigate uncertainties tied to H-1B applications.”
Gupta added that policy continuity in EB-5 would be welcomed given rising Indian demand for secure, long-term migration options.
Will Trump Change the H-1B Ballot System?
Trump has long advocated replacing the H-1B lottery with a merit-based selection process, favouring candidates with advanced degrees and higher salaries.
Varun Singh, MD of XIPHIAS Immigration, explained:
“This could benefit highly skilled Indians but may disadvantage recent graduates who fall short of merit-based thresholds. Balancing competitiveness with fairness will be key.”
He recalled that Trump’s prior ‘Buy American, Hire American’ executive order (E.O. 13788) tightened H-1B scrutiny, and similar measures could reappear.
A Prabhudas Lilladher report noted that Trump plans to reduce H-1B allocations again, mirroring trends seen in 2017–18 before approvals rebounded in 2019–20.
